Will 2026 be a bear market? Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and hit a new all-time high
The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise pointed out that institutional funds and the macro environment are breaking the four-year cycle of Bitcoin, and it is predicted that it will reach a new high in 2026.
(Preliminary summary: JPMorgan Chase: Driven by AI super cycle, the S&P 500 index is expected to grow by another 17% in 2026)
(Background supplement: AI is killing miners: "Energy run" has opened up a new cycle, what destiny intersection do mining companies stand at? )
After Bitcoin broke through 87,000 US dollars last night (16), it is currently at 8.8 The $10,000 range is under pressure, and the long and short sides continue to be at war. As the market continues to discuss whether Bitcoin will fall below $80,000, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of asset management company Bitwise, pointed out in the latest article that the cyclical pattern is being rewritten by institutional funds and the macro environment, and predicted that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new historical high in 2026.
The "four-year curse" failed and the market entered a period of expansion
Review of this report The post-halving bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022 pointed out that violent price fluctuations were mainly due to retail leverage and supply shocks.
However, as the three halvings have passed, the impact of new supply on the total circulation continues to decrease. Bitwise emphasizes that the past formula of "promoting the bull market to top after halving and entering the bear market two years later" is no longer applicable. In addition, a round of liquidation at the end of 2025 will reduce the leverage position to a healthy level, and the market foundation is more solid than before.
The forces that drove the four-year cycle in the past: Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles and the leverage-driven boom and collapse of cryptocurrencies are significantly weaker than previous cycles
At the same time, Hougan believes that Bitcoin is moving from an early "speculative technology experiment" to a "long-term asset allocation target", and the cycle will shift from sharp shocks to a gentler expansion period, which lays the foundation for maintaining upward momentum in 2026.
Twin engines of ETFs and macro push up to 2026 highs?
Both Bitwise and Grayscale previously expected that the Federal Reserve interest rates will decline or remain loose in 2026, and improved liquidity will help the performance of risk assets.
Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the bottom price of Bitcoin can reach US$150,000 in 2026, and Korbit gives a range of US$140,000 to US$170,000. Even conservatives such as Crypto Capital believe that if the interest rate cut is limited, the peak of BTC may still reach US$103,000. Will Bitcoin’s “four-year curse” return? It remains to be seen.
